5 Portfolio Strategies for a Potential Market Slowdown 5 Portfolio Strategies for a Potential Market Slowdown

Written By Michael Gary Scott

It’s early days, and the Nasdaq Composite has already soared 6% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 is up 5.5%. This follows on from the Nasdaq’s impressive 43% gain in 2023 and the S&P 500’s 24% increase.

With market benchmarks repeatedly reaching record highs and stock prices on the upswing, you might be considering taking your foot off the gas — but unsure how to proceed. If so, you’ve landed in the right place.

Here are five sound strategies to implement without a complete overhaul of your portfolio.

Person at desk with laptop, looking at calculator and phone.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. Shift New Savings to Safer Investments

If you want to avoid purchasing overvalued stocks, consider allocating new savings to safer stocks. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 27.3, but several value-oriented market sectors still trade below the average, such as energy, materials, utilities, consumer staples, and financials.

Building a portfolio over time involves regular saving and adding fresh cash to your account as much as picking the right stocks. Consistent saving alleviates the need to sell a stock to purchase another.

For investors in the asset distribution phase withdrawing from their savings, other moves are still viable.

2. Guard Against Overexposure to Specific Sectors

Over the last five years, only technology has outperformed the S&P 500, with communication (led by Meta Platforms and Alphabet) and consumer discretionary (led by Amazon and Tesla) also doing well. The market is being propelled upward by big tech. If you’re overly exposed to these sectors, you could be at risk of a market pullback. While companies are not perfectly correlated, a sell-off in Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia would likely also impact other big tech stocks such as Adobe, Salesforce, and major chip players.

A common mistake is assuming diversity in a portfolio due to many different stocks when, in fact, weightings and allocation play a more crucial role. A portfolio may contain 100 stocks, but if 75% is concentrated in just a handful of companies, it is not as diversified as it seems.

A counterargument is always going with your highest conviction and best ideas. However, now is a good time to review your portfolio for the necessary diversification that aligns with your risk tolerance.

3. Reevaluate Investment Theses

If your portfolio is heavily concentrated in a specific sector or theme, you might question which stocks to consider selling. While valuation is important, the investment thesis holds greater significance. If the thesis remains intact or has become stronger, holding a stock may be prudent even after substantial appreciation.

Take Microsoft for instance. The company has surged 275% over the last five years to become the world’s most valuable, suggesting it might be overbought. Nonetheless, the investment thesis has strengthened, with higher margins and faster growth in its legacy and cloud businesses, as well as the substantial impact of artificial intelligence across its units.

Microsoft’s current 36.8 P/E ratio may seem elevated, but with potential earnings growth of 15% or more annually, the stock could become inexpensive relatively quickly. An annual growth rate of 15% results in a doubling of earnings in five years, and Microsoft might even outdo that average. This justifies the current valuation.

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4. Caution Against “Story Stocks”

Nvidia was the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2023, with a remarkable 49.2% gain so far this year, making it the best performer again in 2024. However, it has evolved into a story stock, where valuation is based on the company’s potential in the years to come rather than its likely performance in the short or medium term. Optimistic investors continue to buy due to anticipated growth without factoring in the uncertainty of lower-than-expected growth.

While numerous story stocks live up to the hype, many subsequently underperform the market as the substantial growth was already anticipated in the price. A case in point is Tesla, down approximately 50% from its all-time closing




Investor Insight: Analyzing Key Stock Moves

Examining Investment Strategies Amid Stock Market Volatility

Following an all-time high of $409.97 a share on Nov. 4, 2021, Tesla has experienced substantial growth in the past few years. However, some analysts believe that its stock is priced to perfection. Similarly, Nvidia’s monumental rise necessitates an exploration of strategic portfolio decisions amid potential market volatility.

Intelligent Portfolio Management

As Nvidia’s stock continues to surge, the pressure intensifies for the company to consistently exceed earnings expectations quarter after quarter. Nevertheless, this soaring trajectory can be unsustainable. Any market-wide downturn, heightened competition, or unforeseen developments could disrupt the company’s growth rate and render the stock overvalued. The question of whether Nvidia is overvalued looms, prompting investors to contemplate prudent adjustments. For instance, those who initially allocated 5% of their portfolio to the company may now find it constitutes 25%. Such situations often warrant a strategic assessment and potential trimming of the holding.

Strategic Positioning

It is essential not to succumb to the temptation to liquidate an entire investment portfolio, particularly under the misconception that the market has reached its peak. Historical evidence indicates that each market dip eventually turns out to be a promising buying opportunity. Engaging in all-or-nothing decisions within the stock market poses a considerable risk. Striving to maintain a rational approach amidst market volatility is crucial, underlining the significance of gradual portfolio adjustments over impulsive, dramatic overhauls.

Steady Investment Approach

Distinguished by substantial growth during an extended investment horizon, esteemed but pricey stocks often evolve to justify their valuations. Long-term investors are encouraged to remain engaged in the stock market, steering clear of erratic buying and selling patterns. In the face of the urge to liquidate investments, it is prudent to realign one’s perspectives on investing and ascertain that they align with their long-term financial objectives.

Mitigating Volatility Through Strategic Moves

Experienced investors have undoubtedly weathered the whirlwind of emotions accompanying market fluctuations. Making well-considered and measured portfolio adjustments can help in maintaining a balanced perspective amidst market volatility. When considering where to allocate investments, it is advisable to focus on prudent, long-term diversification.