The Bullish and Bearish Tale of ETF Sentiment: A Barclays Analysis

Written By Michael Gary Scott
Jun. 27, 2024 5:15 PM ET
EEM, LQD, TLT, EWW, FEZ, XLB, XLF, EWU, EZA, USO, GDX, XME, XRT, XOP, KRE, HEDJ, SOXX, KWEB, ASHR, JETS, SP500, COMP:IND, DJI

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Delving into the realm of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Barclays analysts have set the stage by identifying the top 10 ETFs that embody either the buoyant optimism of a bull or the cautious pessimism of a bear, all as demarcated by the firm’s Sentiment Indicator.

Among the notable candidates residing in the bear camp are the ASHR Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) and the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), both with their ties to China appearing concurrently in Barclays’ list of ETFs embodying bearish sentiment.

Interestingly, their inclusion precedes a looming political spectacle—the Communist Party of China’s third plenary session, set to unfold from July 15-18 in the nation’s capital—a pivotal juncture that could potentially spark an outsized market reaction if the Chinese authorities unveil a favorable policy revision.

Now steering the spotlight towards the ETFs adorned with bearish sentiment:

  • U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) – Sentiment: 80%
  • iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) – Sentiment: 72%
  • SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) – Sentiment: 70%
  • SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) – Sentiment: 70%
  • iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) – Sentiment: 69%
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) – Sentiment: 66%
  • VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – Sentiment: 65%
  • ASHR Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) – Sentiment: 65%
  • SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) – Sentiment: 64%
  • KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) – Sentiment: 63%
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Shifting the narrative towards ETFs basking in bullish sentiment:

  • iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) – Sentiment: 39%
  • iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) – Sentiment: 39%
  • SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) – Sentiment: 37%
  • iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA) – Sentiment: 37%
  • Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLB) – Sentiment: 36%
  • iShares iBoxx IG Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) – Sentiment: 35%
  • WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (HEDJ) – Sentiment: 35%
  • SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) – Sentiment: 33%
  • iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) – Sentiment: 32%
  • Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF) – Sentiment: 31%