Top 2025 Semiconductor Trades: Buy NVIDIA & TSM, Skip AMD

Written By Michael Gary Scott

In 2025, the global semiconductor market is positioned to expand, igniting enthusiasm among market participants. Notably, a couple of semiconductor stocks — NVIDIA Corporation NVDA and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited TSM, or TSMC — have seen substantial gains for quite some time, but Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD has had a terrible run. Let’s, thus, see how investors should bet on these three companies –

Semiconductor – A Growing Market in 2025

The increase in demand for Internet of Things (IoT) devices, digitalization of economies, and heavy investments in semiconductor manufacturing hubs are expected to help the semiconductor market expand this year and beyond. 

According to Statista, revenues from the semiconductor markets worldwide are estimated to reach $702.40 billion in 2025, up from $607.41 billion last year. Revenues are projected to reach $980.80 billion by 2029 at a CAGR of 8.70%. The integrated circuits market will drive revenues, followed by discrete semiconductors, optoelectronics, and sensors and actuators.

Semiconductor stocks have already begun to gain momentum this year, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX gaining 9.2% year to date after advancing 12.2% last year.

2 Semiconductor Stocks to Invest in: NVIDIA & TSMC

SOXX’s top holdings, NVIDIA and TSMC, have been performing well and are poised for further growth in the semiconductor market. Strong demand for NVIDIA’s newer and older chips is expected to drive its share prices higher. 

Shipments for the new generation cutting-edge Blackwell chips have surged this quarter due to their enhanced energy efficiency and 30 times faster AI interface than older chips. At the same time, CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that the demand for the older Hopper chips remains steady due to its superior quality compared to rival Intel Corporation INTC.

NVIDIA’s dominantglobal marketshare in the graphic processing units (GPU) space provides a competitive advantage, which bodes well for its shares. This is because the GPU market worldwide is estimated to increase to $101.54 billion in 2025 from $75.77 billion in 2024, added Precedence Research. 

With NVIDIA’s shares poised to climb, it’s smart to consider buying the NVDA stock now. NVIDIA currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and the $2.94 Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVDA’s earnings per share (EPS) is up 46.3% from a year ago (read more: 2 AI Stocks to Buy for Potential 2025 Gains: NVIDIA & Palantir).  

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TSMC’s dominance in the global foundry market, meanwhile, is expected to boost its stock performance. The uptick in demand for TSMC’s custom artificial intelligence (AI) chips among the likes of Broadcom Inc. AVGO has bolstered its future growth. The increase in pre-order demand for the highly anticipated TSMC’s 2-nanometer (nm) chips this year is also expected to boost the TSMC stock. Its demand has exceeded that of the existing 3 and 5nm chips.

See also  Earnings Season Insights: An In-Depth Look at Bank Performance Exploring Earnings Projections

Amidst the flurry of financial updates as earnings season commences, projections shine a light on promising trends. For the second quarter of 2024, S&P 500 earnings are set to rise by a noteworthy 8.0%, accompanied by a 4.6% uptick in revenues - marking a significant upturn since the robust growth spurt at the start of 2022.

Energy Sector Set for Positive Growth

After a prolonged stint in the negative zone, the energy sector gears up for a positive trajectory in the second quarter.

Insightful 'Magnificent 7' Data

Forecasts predict a 25.5% upsurge in earnings for the 'Magnificent 7' companies, with a 13.2% revenue surge. Excluding this elite group indicates a milder but still positive earnings growth rate of 4.3%.

Early Financial Reports

Initial reports from 19 S&P 500 members reveal a substantial 25.7% earnings boost and a 4.4% revenue rise, with a notable 84.2% surpassing EPS estimates. Bank Performance Preview

JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup spearhead the finance sector's Q2 earnings unveiling. Expectations are optimistic, with an 8.3% earnings uptick and a 5.6% revenue surge. A favorable outlook stems from improving business dynamics and heightened analyst estimates.

Market Response and Analysis

The banking trio's recent market resilience mirrors strengthened earnings prospects. Market confidence, particularly surrounding Citigroup's strategic repositioning efforts, fuels positive performance despite varied earnings outlooks.

Anticipated Macro-Economic Factors

Market optimism also hinges on potential Fed interventions later this year, poised to improve financial conditions and encourage capital market activities. Management commentaries post-earnings will be closely monitored for clues on economic moderation and key investment sectors.

Tech Sector Earnings Trends

The technology sector emerges as a pivotal contributor to overall earnings, showcasing a robust 15.7% growth in the upcoming quarter. Positive earnings momentum extends to a projected 17.4% year-over-year increase for 2024, underpinned by consistently healthy margins.

Margin Dynamics and AI Impact

Record-high tech sector margins, anticipated to surge even further, spotlight the sector's buoyant earnings trajectory. The rise of high-margin software and service offerings, coupled with growing AI integration, propel an optimism wave.

Earnings Outlook in Summary

Exuding a positive sheen, earnings forecasts paint a holistic growth story. Tech, finance, and consumer discretionary sectors lead the margin upswing, augmenting the robust earnings landscape.

Unveiling a Hidden Gem: The Chemical Company Poised for Explosive Growth Unveiling a Hidden Gem: The Chemical Company Poised for Explosive Growth

With the TSMC stock likely to rise, it surely is a must-buy as well. TSMC presently has a Zacks Rank #2 and its EPS is estimated to increase by 21% from last year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is $9.12 (read more: 3 Reasons to Buy TSMC Stock Beyond Record Q4 Net Profit).

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Shun Semiconductor Stock AMD for Now 

Unlike NVIDIA and TSMC, for now, it’s best to avoid investing in Advanced Micro Devices, another key holding of SOXX. This is because AMD stock’s performance has been below par in the past five years due to weakness in the personal computer market aggravated by the pandemic. The chipmaker’s inability to take advantage of the AI bandwagon like NVIDIA, along with sluggish demand for gaming consoles, has failed to lift the AMD stock.

AMD’s bulk revenues from outside the United States expose the company to exchange rate fluctuations, a headwind for its near-term prospects. AMD, at present, has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 (Strong Buy) Rank stocks here.

 

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Intel Corporation (INTC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): ETF Research Reports

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