The Pentagon Makes Another Move in the Market – Are You Paying Attention Yet?

Written By Michael Gary Scott

In 1948, the two-month-old nation of South Korea was facing a serious threat, not only from North Korea but also from Russia and China.

At the time, South Korea’s president was in Tokyo meeting with General Douglas MacArthur. MacArthur understood exactly what was at stake. MacArthur was concerned about the spread of communism in Asia, and he did not mince words. He told him:

                I will defend Korea as I would my own country – just as I would California.

More than 70 years later, not much has changed. Except this time, we’re not talking about a battlefield.

Instead, the conflict is about supply chains. It is about critical minerals, advanced manufacturing and the materials that power AI systems, semiconductors and modern weapons.

Ultimately, it’s all about two things: reducing our dependence on China and winning the artificial intelligence race.

That is why this week’s move by the Pentagon matters far more than most investors realize.

The Pentagon’s $7.4 Billion Zinc Deal

The Defense Department has agreed to take a 40% stake in a massive new mineral smelting and processing facility to be built in Tennessee, in partnership with Korea Zinc.

The project carries a price tag of roughly $7.4 billion. Once completed, the facility is expected to process up to 540,000 tons of materials per year inside the United States.

Now, this is not a mine. That distinction matters.

Mining gets the headlines. But processing and refining are where the real leverage lives. Whoever controls that step controls pricing, access and supply. For decades, China has dominated this part of the value chain, even when raw materials were extracted elsewhere.

That is exactly what this deal is designed to change.

Under the agreement, Korea Zinc will sell about $1.9 billion in newly issued shares to a joint venture controlled by the U.S. government and U.S.-based strategic investors. The Pentagon will own roughly 40% of that joint venture, while the investor group will end up with about a 10% stake in Korea Zinc itself.

In short, the Pentagon is becoming a major owner, not just a customer. Just as important, the United States will receive priority access to Korea Zinc’s global production, not just output from the Tennessee facility.

What This Facility Will Actually Do – And Why Zinc Matters

At first glance, a zinc smelter might not sound strategic. But zinc is a foundational industrial metal.

It is essential for corrosion-resistant steel, infrastructure, autos, military equipment and advanced manufacturing. More importantly, zinc smelting is a gateway process – in other words, these same facilities can also be used to extract and process a wide range of other critical and strategic materials.

That is why this project matters.

According to Korea Zinc, the Tennessee facility is designed to produce 13 different metals and materials, the majority of which are classified as critical to national security. Many of these materials are essential inputs for semiconductors, AI hardware, data centers, batteries, satellites and advanced weapons systems.

That is why the Pentagon is involved.

Why This Is So Disruptive

The market reaction underscored just how significant this move is.

Korea Zinc’s shares initially surged by more than 26% when the announcement was made on Monday. But the next day, the stock fell 14% as two of the company’s largest shareholders moved to block the deal.

The issue? Dilution of existing shareholders. And in the U.S., the deal still has to pass muster with the antitrust authorities.

See also  Earnings Season Insights: An In-Depth Look at Bank Performance Exploring Earnings Projections

Amidst the flurry of financial updates as earnings season commences, projections shine a light on promising trends. For the second quarter of 2024, S&P 500 earnings are set to rise by a noteworthy 8.0%, accompanied by a 4.6% uptick in revenues - marking a significant upturn since the robust growth spurt at the start of 2022.

Energy Sector Set for Positive Growth

After a prolonged stint in the negative zone, the energy sector gears up for a positive trajectory in the second quarter.

Insightful 'Magnificent 7' Data

Forecasts predict a 25.5% upsurge in earnings for the 'Magnificent 7' companies, with a 13.2% revenue surge. Excluding this elite group indicates a milder but still positive earnings growth rate of 4.3%.

Early Financial Reports

Initial reports from 19 S&P 500 members reveal a substantial 25.7% earnings boost and a 4.4% revenue rise, with a notable 84.2% surpassing EPS estimates. Bank Performance Preview

JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup spearhead the finance sector's Q2 earnings unveiling. Expectations are optimistic, with an 8.3% earnings uptick and a 5.6% revenue surge. A favorable outlook stems from improving business dynamics and heightened analyst estimates.

Market Response and Analysis

The banking trio's recent market resilience mirrors strengthened earnings prospects. Market confidence, particularly surrounding Citigroup's strategic repositioning efforts, fuels positive performance despite varied earnings outlooks.

Anticipated Macro-Economic Factors

Market optimism also hinges on potential Fed interventions later this year, poised to improve financial conditions and encourage capital market activities. Management commentaries post-earnings will be closely monitored for clues on economic moderation and key investment sectors.

Tech Sector Earnings Trends

The technology sector emerges as a pivotal contributor to overall earnings, showcasing a robust 15.7% growth in the upcoming quarter. Positive earnings momentum extends to a projected 17.4% year-over-year increase for 2024, underpinned by consistently healthy margins.

Margin Dynamics and AI Impact

Record-high tech sector margins, anticipated to surge even further, spotlight the sector's buoyant earnings trajectory. The rise of high-margin software and service offerings, coupled with growing AI integration, propel an optimism wave.

Earnings Outlook in Summary

Exuding a positive sheen, earnings forecasts paint a holistic growth story. Tech, finance, and consumer discretionary sectors lead the margin upswing, augmenting the robust earnings landscape.

Unveiling a Hidden Gem: The Chemical Company Poised for Explosive Growth Unveiling a Hidden Gem: The Chemical Company Poised for Explosive Growth

Now, I suspect that the deal will ultimately go through – if for no other reason than the fact that both the U.S. and South Korean governments want this deal.

In fact, South Korea’s industry minister publicly backed the project this week, calling it a positive strategic move despite the financial burden and noting it would strengthen critical mineral supply chains.

This isn’t Korea Zinc’s first tie-in with U.S. interests, either. Back in August, Korea Zinc signed a memorandum of understanding with Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) to establish a China-free supply chain for germanium.

Germanium is not a household name, but it is a critical input for modern defense systems. It is used in satellite solar panels, thermal imaging equipment, infrared sensors and night-vision goggles.

China currently controls the majority of the world’s refined germanium supply. Under the agreement, Korea Zinc will supply high-purity germanium, and Lockheed Martin will receive priority procurement rights.

Not the First Deal, or the Last Deal…

Whether this deal is consummated or not, the important thing to remember is that this is a part of a much larger trend.

Over the past year, the Trump administration has made it clear that certain assets are simply too important to national security to be left entirely to the open market.

Here is how it has played out so far:

  • In July, the Pentagon took a roughly 15% stake in MP Materials (MP) to secure rare earth minerals used in defense systems. The stock surged 111% in the week that followed.
  • In August, the U.S. government committed nearly $9 billion to Intel Corporation (INTC) to rebuild domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Shares nearly doubled over the next three months.
  • In September, Washington announced it was seeking a 10% equity stake in Lithium Americas (LAC). The stock jumped 194% in the following two weeks.
  • In October, the White House revealed it was exploring a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (TMQ), unlocking domestic copper and cobalt production. Shares exploded 211% in a single day.

Korea Zinc is the next chapter in that same story.

What This Means for Investors

Seen in that context, the Pentagon’s move in Tennessee is not an isolated event. It is part of a much bigger shift that most investors still do not fully grasp.

Thanks to an Executive Order signed by President Trump earlier this year, the U.S. government is no longer just setting rules. It is investing directly, fast-tracking a select group of companies tied to America’s most critical assets.

We have already seen how powerful that can be. In fact, I told my followers about MP Materials back in July – just before the deal was announced. 

Each time Washington has moved into rare earths, semiconductors, lithium or copper, stocks in those areas have surged. And now the focus is expanding into processing and refining, the real choke points in global supply chains.

In a special briefing, I explain how this new strategy works, why it is accelerating – and which companies are on my shortlist as potential targets for Uncle Sam.

If I’m right, or if even a whiff of interest is leaked, then these stocks could double (or more), practically overnight – just like MP Materials, Lithium Americas and Trilogy.

Click here to see the details now.

Sincerely,

An image of a cursive signature in black text.An image of a cursive signature in black text.

Louis Navellier

Editor, Market 360