Analysis: A Comparison of DexCom and 3M Stocks The Battle of Returns: DexCom vs. 3M

Written By Michael Gary Scott

In the world of stocks, it’s often a fierce battle to secure the best returns. Today, the clash between DexCom and 3M is under the spotlight. While their arenas differ, these contenders are matched in size, gravitas, and investor expectations with market capitalizations hovering around $50-60 billion. Investors keen to predict the winning stock have bestowed a majestic multiple of 13x upon DexCom, dwarfing the modest 1.7x draped upon 3M. Why such adoration for DexCom? It’s a tale scripted with soaring revenue growth, robust profitability, and a financial stance that stands tall.

1. The Recent Scorecard: DexCom Outshines

Roll the highlight reel back to early January 2021. MMM stock, sulking at $120, chose a downward trajectory, kissing $100 as of now. In striking contrast, DXCM stock reveled in a 45% surge, prancing from $90 to a fetching $130. While these numbers dance before us, the S&P 500 frolics with a 40% uptick over this comparable triennium. Yet, MMM, the seasoned player, has faltered. Its 2021 yielded a measly 5% return, nosediving into -29% and -2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. DXCM, though not without faltering, pirouetted with a 45% gain in 2021, tripped with -16% in 2022, and finally regained composure with a 10% crescendo in 2023. The S&P 500 witnessed a 27%, -19%, and 24% return over the same trifecta – a stark reminder that consistency in trumping the S&P 500 is the elusive quill in a cap fraught with challenge across many sectors and for both megacap titans and industrious legends. Amidst this turbulent terrain, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio brandishes a sparkling trophy, outshining the S&P 500 annually, a feat few can claim. Why the magic? The lustrous HQ Portfolio shines brighter, offering more rewards with fewer risks – a tantalizing narrative.

Can MMM and DXCM weave redemption from the loom of a treacherous macroeconomic landscape, underscored by towering oil prices and stratospheric interest rates? Could the shadows of underperformance against the S&P flit closer in the upcoming act? Or shall they script a recovery tale that regales? While both stocks are poised for ascension, the crystal ball whispers of DXCM tasting sweeter nectars between the two.

2. DexCom’s Melodic Revenue Symphony

In the realm of revenue harmony, DexCom orchestrates a melodic crescendo of 23% annual growth, a symphony compared to 3M’s humble 1% hum. Dengue’s revenue swelled from $1.9 billion to a resolute $3.6 billion across this dramatic opera. Meanwhile, 3M peppered with a sales spike in 2021, courtesy of the ravenous demand for masks and protective gear amid the pandemic’s icy grip. However, the post-pandemic chills swept 3M into an 8% sales decline between 2021 and 2023. Clad in woe, 3M’s other ventures bore the brunt of supply chain woes, inflation wraiths, Dollar’s valor, and the somber melody of an economic decrescendo. Luxuries evaded 3M’s consumer bosom, with automotive aftershocks and home improvements dreams shattered. Legal battles, too, thundered in 3M’s court, echoing discord over veteran earlobes and the lament of contaminated waters. 3M, valiant in its vow to right these wrongs, pledges an ongoing saga of payments – a sumptuous $6 billion to quell earplugs’ whispers and $10 billion over a 13-year ode to resolve the “forever chemicals” saga.

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Across the stage, DexCom enthralls with new patrons filling its coffers, entranced by the symphony of continuous glucose monitoring devices. DexCom, a flag-bearer with regulatory blessings for its wearable glucose monitor, invited 600,000 new pilgrims, bolstering its devotee ranks to 2.3 million in 2023. A rhapsody of recurring revenues serenades DexCom, draped in the luminescence of disposable sensors that spark 90% of the revenue tapestry. With a burgeoning flock, DexCom places a bet on bountiful harvests from these chirping sensors as its congregation grows.

3. Prodigy or Pronghorn: DexCom’s Baleful Yarn

In the ledger of profitability, DexCom’s banner waves gallantly. Its operating compass, spinning from 15.5% to a poised 16.5%, stands a dignified stride amidst shifting tides, whereas 3M stumbles through a tempestuous fiscal squall, floundering in an ocean of -27.6% in 2023 – a far cry from the sturdy 21.5% foothold in 2020. DexCom’s pockets brim with riches, the adjusted operating float at 19.8% in 2023 sketching a tale of bounty.

Surveying the realm of financial gambits, DexCom casts a long shadow of light. With a debt echo of a bare 5%, contrasted with 3M’s heavy 30%, and a cache crafted from 43% of assets, towering over 3M’s meager 12%, DexCom’s aura brims with solace. A financial saga whispered in the breeze, DexCom serenades a ballad of balance and bounty, casting shadows on the teetering giant that is 3M.


The Battle of Valuation: DexCom vs. 3M

Comparing DexCom and 3M, it’s evident that DexCom has shown superior performance in terms of revenue growth, profitability, and financial stability. Despite fluctuations in valuation multiples like P/E and P/EBIT, DexCom emerges as the preferable investment due to its robust foundation.

A Valuation Comparison

3M’s current stock value stands at 1.7x trailing revenues, below its three-year average of 2.2x. In contrast, DexCom is at 13x revenues, compared to its historical average of 16.4x. The figures suggest similar growth potential if the valuation multiples align with historical averages, favoring DexCom’s outlook.

Challenges and Potential

3M strives for enhanced profitability through strategic actions like divesting Solventum and resolving major litigations. However, macroeconomic uncertainties, declining sales, and weak consumer demand pose imminent risks to 3M’s earnings. On the other hand, DexCom faces growth concerns amidst competitors like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in the obesity drug market.

Unique Position of DexCom

Despite challenges, DexCom remains optimistic about its Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) device as a crucial tool in managing type 2 diabetes. The synergy between CGM devices and new obesity drugs can potentially boost DexCom’s market presence and demand for its disposable sensors. This strategic advantage highlights DexCom’s resilience in navigating industry dynamics.

Financial Performance Snapshot

Returns May 2024 MTD 2024 YTD 2017-2024 Total
3M Return 5% 13% -7%
DexCom Return 2% 5% 769%
S&P 500 Return 5% 11% 137%
Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio 6% 6% 653%

[1] Returns as of 5/16/2024
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

When considering investment options, it’s vital to assess factors beyond current performance and delve into inherent strengths and growth potential. DexCom’s innovative approach and response to market challenges position it favorably for continued success.